Bounceback Season: How MLB Teams Perform After Last-Place Finishes

An offseason of discontent about the future home of the Oakland Athletics is far from completion. Owner John Fisher looks to move the team from the Bay Area, its home of 53 years, and transplant it to Las Vegas. In the meantime, the A’s have one of the worst rosters in recent MLB history and would not be a good proposition for anybody’s future bets if legal California sportsbooks were in operation.

As such, the A’s and their 30th-ranked payroll ($45,525,000 in 2024 according to Spotrac.com) aren’t expected to do much on the field this year. Oakland has the second-lowest World Series odds of any team on ESPN BET at +15000 and a preseason win total over/under of 57.5.

Such a result would represent a seven-win improvement over last year’s tire fire of a 50-112 (.302) campaign in the East Bay. That was the worst winning percentage for the franchise since the World War I era, during their days in in Philadelphia — between 1915 and 1919, the A’s had three years playing under .300 baseball including the worst. A .235 season (36-117 with one tie) in 1916.

Still, a new MLB season means a chance to start anew for each of the sport’s 30 franchises. So the A’s aim to flip the script in the new year, though recent history tells us that such a feat is unlikely in The Town this year.

BetCalifornia.com, which provides the best California sports betting promo codes in the eventuality of a legal market in the state, looked into last-place teams in the past decade. We sought out the worst regular-season team in the AL and NL each year since 2014 to see if any of those losing teams bounce back.

2014-2023 American League & National League Losers

Year	League, Team	Record, Rank	Next year, Record, Rank	Rank Movement
2023	AL, Oakland	50-112, #15	‘24: TBD	TBD
	NL, Colorado	59-103, #15	‘24: TBD	TBD
2022	AL, Oakland	60-102, #15	‘23: 50-112, #15	+0
	NL, Washington	55-107, #15	‘23: 71-91, #14	+1
2021	AL, Baltimore	52-110, #15	‘22: 83-79, #7	+8
	NL, Arizona	52-110, #15	‘22: 74-88, #9	+6
2020	AL, Texas	22-38, #15	‘21: 60-102, #14	+1
	NL, Pittsburgh	19-41, #15	‘21: 61-101, #14	+1
2019	AL, Detroit	47-114, #15	‘20: 23-35, #14	+1
	NL, Miami	57-105, #15	‘20: 31-29, #7	+8
2018	AL, Baltimore	47-115, #15	‘19: 54-108, #14	+1
	NL, Miami	63-98, #15	‘19: 57-105, #15	+0
2017	AL, Detroit	64-98, #15	‘18: 64-98, #12	+3
	NL, San Francisco	64-98, #15	‘18: 73-89, #12	+3
2016	AL, Minnesota	59-103, #15	‘17: 85-77, #5	+10
	NL, San Diego	68-94, #15	‘17: 71-91, #11	+4
2015	AL, Oakland	68-94, #15	‘16: 69-93, #13	+2
	NL, Philadelphia	63-99, #15	‘16: 71-91, #11	+4
2014	AL, Texas	67-95, #15	‘15: 88-74, #3	+12
	NL, Arizona	64-98, #15	‘15: 79-83, #8	+7

The National League averages a positive movement of 3.77 in rank for teams the year after they rank No. 15 in their league. An AL teams move up an average of 4.22 spots the following season. Based on this trend, the Oakland A’s should move up to No. 10 or 11 and the Colorado Rockies should move up to No. 11 or 12.

Can A’s Return To Relevance In 2024?

Since 2014, the largest jump after a team finished last in its league was a 12-spot jump by the Texas Rangers. They went from 67-95 in 2014 to 88-74 the next season. In the NL, the biggest improvement is eight spots by the Miami Marlins, who went from 57-105 in 2019 to 31-29 in the 2020 season that was shortened because of COVID-19 restrictions.

A recent AL success story that Oakland fans can look to is in Baltimore. The Orioles went from 52-110 in 2021 to 83-79 the following season, then kept improving last season, when they were 101-61 and won the AL East. That speaks to the value franchises can reap by investing heavily in their farm systems and scouting systems.

For Oakland, such a reversal of fortune seems unlikely, though stranger things have happened on the diamonds of Major League Baseball in recent years. Those looking for legal California sports betting apps also have to look to the future for hope.