Gavin Newsom has said he's not running in the 2024 US presidential election, but oddsmakers have placed him in the Top 5 of most likely candidates following the Presidential Debate. Newsom, the current Governor of California, would be well-positioned to target the presidency with President Joe Biden dropping out of the 2024 Presidential Race. Perhaps the election odds point to something we don't yet know?
While there are no California betting sites yet to place any wagers, we will keep track of the latest odds here.
Latest Gavin Newsom Odds to be President: November 2024
The latest Gavin Newsom 2024 odds to be President are off the board according to oddsmakers. Below you can find the latest odds for the five presidential candidates with the shortest odds.
| 1. Donald Trump | -120 (54.5% Chance) |
| 2. Kamala Harris | -110 (52.4% Chance) |
| 3. Michelle Obama | +5000 (2% Chance) |
| 4. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr | +5000 (2% Chance) |
| 5. JD Vance | +8000 (1.2% Chance) |
| ✅ Odds Last Verified | November 18, 2024 |
Is Gavin Newsom Running for President in 2024?
As of November 2024 Gavin Newsom has not expressed a desire to run in the US presidential election. Newsom is perhaps not as confident as some bettors would expect when it comes to elections. He survived a 2021 recall despite losing 60% of the vote, and in fall 2022 – before the midterms – he insisted he wouldn't challenge Biden for the presidency.
This remains the case. In April 2023 he endorsed president Joe Biden for the Democratic nomination. However, one big reason California sports betting apps and sites still give Newsom an 4.8% chance of becoming the next United States president is because Biden has stepped down from the 2024 Presidential Race.
Who Gavin Newsom Would Likely Be Running Against
If Newsom is selected as the Democrats' pick for the 2024 US presidential election then he would face a monumental battle to make it to the White House. Not only would he be up against the GOP machine, but convincing voters he is the man for the job would be difficult after his recall vote in 2021.
Donald Trump – Priced at -188 in the election odds, Trump looks in the perfect place to return to the Oval Office. So long as he can keep the DOJ and various lawsuits at bay, the ex-president looks to be the favorite for the election by this time next year. What gives Newsom a slight boost here is a poll suggesting he beats Trump 40% to 39%.
Trump odds:
- -188 to be the next US president (69.4%)
Who Would Gavin Newsom's Vice President Running Mate Be?
Newsom's vice presidential nominee would be a little more obscure than the presidential candidates. It's unlikely Harris would accept the job under a new boss, while it's hard to see how Robert Kennedy Jr. would get on Newsom's ticket. Other options are:
- Andrew Cuomo – former New York Governor
- John Ossoff – Senator for Georgia
- Ayanna Pressley – U.S. Representative for Massachusetts
- Pete Buttigieg – US Secretary for Transportation
It's worth noting here that sportsbooks really don't have much to go on with regards to who will be the VP in 2024. Harris now has the best odds for the Democratic nominee after Biden dropped out.
Can Newsom Win Presidency in 2024?
It is certainly possible that Newsom is elected president in November 2024. However, there are a lot of barriers in his way. The first is Harris. Birden endorsed VP Harris after dropping out.
He would then need to win the 2024 Democratic primaries, which look to be a free-for-all. Newsom polls well against Trump and DeSantis but it's hard to tell how he would fare versus Harris, Kennedy Jr. and others.
Win the Dems' pick and then the real work begins. Could Newsom beat Trump? That's no easy challenge. Beating Florida Gov DeSantis might be more straightforward, but the Republican nomination is almost certainly going to the former president.
Gavin Newsom 2024 Democratic Nominee Odds
The battle for the top pick on the Democratic side is more of a contest right now that Biden dropped out. This includes Newsom, who has the second-shortest odds behind Harris and Michelle Obama to win the Democrat primaries.
| Kamala Harris | 📈 -800 (88.9% Chance) |
| Michelle Obama | 📈 +1000 (9% Chance) |
| ⭐️ Gavin Newsom | 📈+1200 (7.7% Chance) |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 📉 +1600 (5.9% Chance) |
| Hillary Clinton | 📉 +2000 (4.8% Chance) |
| ✅ Last Verified | November 18, 2024 |
Could Gavin Newsom Be the 2024 Presidential Democratic Nominee?
Were Newsom to run for president then he would likely do so because Biden had ceded power. In this instance, the 55-year-old would come up against a range of Democrats seeking the party nomination. Here are some he would likely be up against:
Kamala Harris – With Biden stepping down and endorsing VP Harris, she now has the best odds to earn the Democratic Nominee. A former California senator, Harris has the pedigree to run the country but not the support. Her approval ratings are lower than Biden's.
Harris Odds:
- -800 to win Dems nomination (89% Chance)
- +200 to be the next president (33% Chance)
Michelle Obama – The former First Lady has shot up odds boards and currently has the second-shortest odds to become the Democratic Presidential nominee, although she is well behind Biden at this time.
M. Obama Odds:
- +1000 to win Dems nomination (9% Chance)
- +2000 to be the next president (4.8% Chance)
Beyond Harris and Michelle Obama, Dean Phillips and Elizabeth Warren are technically next in line in terms of betting odds, but with each holding less than a 2.5% chance, neither are really being considered at this point.
Could Gavin Newsom Be the Vice President in 2024?
There is a strong possibility that Newsom could become the Vice President in 2024. Newsom wouldn't need the popular vote for this role and there is speculation over who Harris will select.
Key Developments Gavin Newsom Odds to Be President
The election betting odds on Newsom for 2024 have swung wildly over the past few years. When the market opened after the last election he had only been in the California Gov. job a year. And yet within a few years he's come one of the biggest names on the list of viable Biden replacemets.
- 📆 July 21, 2024 - President Joe Biden drops out of the 2024 Presidential Race, resulting in shortened Newsom presidential odds.
- 📆 July 13, 2024 - After the attempted assassination on former President Donald Trump, the field and Newsom's odds to be the next President slip further behind Trump.
- 📆 July 11, 2024 - Biden delivers a fiery speech after the NATO summit, indicating his commitment to staying in the race. Newsom and the other potential Democratic nominees' odds to be President fall to pre-debate levels.
- 📆 June 28, 2024 - Gavin Newsom's Presidential odds skyrocket to +500 following the US Presidential Debate.
- 📆 November 30, 2023 - Newsom and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will have a debate televised on Fox News in what the network is calling "The Great Red vs. Blue State Debate". The debate is set to begin at 6 p.m. PT.
- 📆 May 2023 – Ex-California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger says Newsom running for president is a "no brainer". This gives his odds a further boost. However, it's more likely that Newsom will run for president in 2028 when Biden, and perhaps Trump, are out of the picture for the White House.
- 📆 March 2023 – Newsom launches a new campaign targeting GOP figures in key states. The $10m initiative heightens his profile further.
- 📆 September 2022 – Endorsing Biden helps Newsom's odds even though he's backing a different guy for office. The odds fall to +1400 on Newsom being the next United States president. His passing of firearms laws in California and establishment of the Office of Health Care Affordability are further boosts to his profile among Democrats.
- 📆 Summer 2022 – After 18 months of high odds Newsom's price begins to shorten. This is partially due to his high-profile campaign for re-election in the midterms, which casts him back into the national spotlight.
- 📆 November 2020 – The election betting market opens after Biden's victory over Donald Trump. Newsom's election betting odds are +6600. Those expand to +10000 after he narrowly avoids losing a recall.
What Are Gavin Newsom's Chances To Be President in 2024 or 2028?
Betting site bet365 has priced Newsom at +1400 in the election betting odds, which means he has a 7.7% chance of winning in 2024. That's a long shot but highlights how confident odds makers are that either Joe Biden or former president Donald Trump will win.
The 2028 election odds are yet to be released, but Newsom would almost certainly be in the running. He could even face Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
What the Sportsbooks Have Newsom Presidential Odds At
bet365 is one of the world's most reputable sportsbooks and carries licenses in many American states, but not in California. What's more, it is illegal to bet on politics in the U.S. However, bet365's UK sportsbook does carry Newsom presidential election odds right now. Newsom is priced at +900 in that sportsbook.
All odds obtained in this article are from bet365's UK site.
Is Betting on Politics Legal in California?
Betting on politics is not legal in California, nor can bettors place wagers on politics at tribal casinos or racetracks. Californians rejected Props 26 and 27 in the fall of 2022 that would have made it possible to bet on sports in CA, but still not politics.
And those propositions were expected to have opened the door for expanded gambling in the state, including California online casinos.
How to Read the Newsom Presidential Odds
Election betting odds, whether they're focused on Newsom, incumbent Joe Biden, or even an outlier like Hillary Clinton, can be read the same every time. Here's how they work:
Say you want to bet on Newsom to be the next president. You check the presidential election odds board and see him at +900. These odds indicate you'd win $900 if you wagered $100 on the outcome, and it won.
Now, the other presidential election odds that might occur is if Newsom falls into the negative numbers. This suggests he is the "odds on favorite" and could happen if, say, he won the Democratic primaries and faced Republican Nikki Haley. Say Newsom was -200 to win. Here, a bettor would need to wager $200 just to win $100 back in profit.
When Newsom's odds fall then he's more likely to win. When they rise, he's less likely. The figure in the odds indicates your potential winnings – and risk.
2024 Presidential Election Polls: Where Does Newsom Stand?
The presidential election polls for 2024 are a great indicator, along with the election odds, on how likely anyone is to be inaugurated come Jan. 2025. Newsom is one of the peripheral figures who could win the election but probably won't.
Newsom hasn't announced he is running, and so is not in the polling data for the Democratic primaries. He is also not in the US presidential polls, which are currently split between Biden and Trump. Even the likes of Kamala Harris and Ron DeSantis are seeing their support fade away here.
In February 2023 Newsom's approval rating hit its highest peak in two years, at 58%. However, figuring out how to handle the state's $22bn budget deficit could prove his undoing before long. If Newsom is thinking of running for president then he needs to get out of the CA Governor post with his reputation in tact. According to the San Francisco Standard there aren't enough people backing Newsom for a presidential run just yet. That could change, but probably not in time for 2024.
Gavin Newsom Presidential Odds FAQs
Gavin Newsom is not running for president in 2024 but is instead backing Harris in the Democratic primaries. However, now that Biden has stepped out of the 2024 Presidential Race, Newsom is in line to replace him as the Democratic nominee.
According to bet365's UK sportsbook, Gavin Newsom is unlisted to win the 2024 US Presidential election. Newsom's Presidential odds skyrocketed following the Presidential Debate and Biden dropping out of the race.
Although this could change in the future, you cannot yet place wagers on US elections if you live in the United States. Presidential election odds are available in the UK and place President Biden and Donald Trump as the favorites for the White House in 2024.
Gavin Newsom can run in the 2024 presidential elections but it's unlikely that he will. The California Governor has already endorsed President Biden as the Democratic nominee to run for the White House in 2024.
According to the bet365 UK sportsbook, former President Donald Trump is the current betting favorite to win the 2024 US Presidential election. At odds of -175, this comes out to a 53.3% chance once converted to an implied probability.
Author
Joe Short is a political betting expert for BetCalifornia.com. Joe covers betting on US politics including a focus on presidential election odds. When Joe isn't analyzing and predicting the latest odds for major political races, he is a freelance journalist covering politics, football, tennis and darts, among other things.
