NBA Championship Odds: 2023-2024 NBA Finals Odds, Favorites, Contenders, & Longshots

NBA Championship Odds: Latest NBA Finals Updates

The calendar has flipped to 2024 and the NBA playoffs are just a few months away. Let's take a look at the current NBA Championship odds, favorites, and odds movement.

What are the current NBA Championship odds?

Every NBA season features a surprise team, and the trick for sharp gamblers is to identify that team when the odds are high. A perfect example of this would have been jumping on the Clippers' odds at +2700 last month. Thanks to their current hot streak, those odds have shortened all the way to +800 as of late January, giving the Clips the fourth-shortest Finals odds.

The chart below lists every team's 2024 NBA Championship odds according to DraftKings Sportsbook California from the shortest to longest.

Compared to the past month or so, there have only been a handful of teams with notable NBA Championship odds movement. On the positive side, the Pacers jumped from +12000 to +7500 as they've regained their spot as the highest-scoring team in the league. The Utah Jazz have also made a decent jump in odds, although they remain longshots after moving from +80000 to +50000 since the middle of January.

On the flip side, Golden State continues a downward trend in their NBA Finals odds which have slipped to +6000. The Toronto Raptors were listed at +25000 just over two weeks ago and those have dropped to +70000. The Memphis Grizzlies' collapse continues in the wake of losing Ja Morant and Steven Adams as the Grizzlies are now tied for the longest odds to win the 2023-2024 NBA Championship.

Who is favored to win the 2024 NBA Championship?

Boston and Milwaukee are among the current 2024 NBA Championship favorites after both teams made big-time moves in the offseason. The Celtics traded for Kristaps Porzingis, giving Boston an awesome trio of scorers. Porzingis, coming off the best season of his career, joins Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Not to be outdone, the Bucks ultimately won the Damian Lillard sweepstakes, pairing the long-time Portland Trailblazer with NBA star Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Nikola Jokic took the summer off and did not play at the FIBA World Cup with his Serbian countrymen, who finished second behind Germany. The rest for the two-time MVP figures to help the Nuggets, who won 10 of their final 11 postseason games last spring.

The Phoenix Suns made their splash trade earlier in the offseason, adding Bradley Beal to Devin Booker and Kevin Durant to try and get over the postseason hump that has alluded the franchise for the past few seasons.

NBA Finals Opening Odds

Let's take a look at how the odds on the ten teams with the shortest NBA Finals odds have changed over the summer, via FanDuel Sportsbook. Remember, the Bucks changed coaches, the Celtics dealt away their best defender, and Phoenix, Boston, and Milwaukee all added notable pieces to their starting lineups.

The biggest movement among the opening NBA Championship market resides with the Miami Heat. After making it to the NBA Finals as the No. 8 seed last season, it seemed as though Damian Lillard was a lock for South Beach and oddsmakers responded as such. With Lillard landing with Milwaukee, however, we've seen Miami's Finals odds fall all the way to the 12th-shortest team across the league.

The 76ers have also seen their NBA Championship odds lengthen amidst James Harden's newest trade request. After losing in the conference semifinals round each of the two years Harden has been in Philadelphia, his potential absence has created doubt for the 76ers' success among oddsmakers.

NBA Finals News

One of the things we will watch closely this season is how the NBA Finals odds on some of the longer shots shift. For example, the New Orleans Pelicans came out of the first week of September getting little action at +4700, but a healthy Zion Williamson (yes, we have all been waiting a long time) could make them a Top 3 team in the West. Some items of note from the summer:

• 📅 Jan. 9, 2024: Luka Doncic appears to be dealing with an ankle injury as he left the Mavs' game against the Knicks multiple times. It has yet to be reported whether or not this is expected to keep Doncic sidelined for an extended period of time.
• 📅 Jan. 9, 2024: Tyrese Haliburton will miss at least two weeks after straining his hamstring in tonight's game against the Celtics.
• 📅 Jan. 9, 2024: Chris Paul underwent surgery for a fractured hand and will miss at least three weeks for the Warriors.
• 📅 Jan. 8, 2024: The Grizzlies will be without Ja Morant for the rest of the year due to a season-ending shoulder injury. 
• 📅 Jan. 7, 2024: Raptors' center Jakob Poeltl is dealing with an ankle sprain and is out indefinitely.
• 📅 Dec. 30, 2023: The New York Knicks have acquired OG Anunoby from the Toronto Raptors for RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and a 2024 2nd-round pick.

NBA Finals Preseason Favorites

Here are the three teams with the shortest NBA Finals odds from each conference, per DraftKings Sportsbook.

Western Conference Favorites

Denver Nuggets: +550 

Strengths: In hindsight, Nikola Jokic should have been the first MVP winner in three consecutive years since Larry Bird.

Weaknesses: You only miss a glue guy like Bruce Brown once he is gone. Great pickup for Indiana.

Phoenix Suns: +650

Strengths: Bradley Beal, Kevin Durant, and Devin Booker are all potential 30 points per game scorers.

Weaknesses: There is no natural point guard on the roster with Chris Paul gone. Can Beal be a playmaker?

Los Angeles Lakers: +1400

Strengths: Last we checked, LeBron James and Anthony Davis are still two of most dominant players across the entire league.

Weaknesses: The aforementioned James and Davis have both missed significant stretches of time over the past few seasons. James will turn 39 at the end of December and Davis will be 31 by the time the playoffs start. Can they stay healthy and play enough games to get the Lakers to the postseason?

Eastern Conference Favorites

Boston Celtics (+400)

Strengths: Jayson Tatum is as good as they get in the East when it comes to best players under 30 years old. Kristaps Porzingis comes in from Washington off his best season ever.

Weaknesses: Somebody has to guard to opposition's best player. Marcus Smart used to do that but was traded to Memphis

Milwaukee Bucks (+400)

Strengths: When he is on top of his game mentally (yes we are talking about free throws), there is no more extraordinary athlete/scorer in the NBA than Giannis Antetokounmpo. Adding a big-time player like Lillard gives the Greek Freak a much-needed counterpart.

Weaknesses: Milwaukee went down quietly against Miami as a No. 1 seed, costing Mike Budenholzer his job. Adrian Griffin has never been a head coach at any level.

Philadelphia 76ers (+1800)

Strengths: Joel Embiid will return to defend his 2022-2023 MVP award and Philadelphia has some depth assuming Harden is gone.

Weaknesses: Perennial underachievers who haven't been able to advance beyond the conference semifinals.

NBA Finals Preseason Contenders

There are a slew of great NBA players who have been sidelined by injuries too much over the past several seasons. If they ever could stay healthy and could ease up on the load management, their teams could be overachievers when it comes to beating relatively long odds.

Western Conference Contenders

Los Angeles Clippers (+1800)

Strengths: Kawhi Leonard was NBA Finals MVP in 2019. He has missed 167 regular-season game since then but enters 2023-24 healthy.

Weaknesses: Russell Westbrook is coming off two consecutive horrible seasons. At a certain point, Father Time catches up with everyone, even fashionistas like Russ.

Dallas Mavericks (+2200)

Strengths: Kyrie Irving is a polarizing figure but is an astonishingly good basketball player when his head is on straight. He and Luka Doncic will have a full season together.

Weaknesses: In a loaded Western Conference, is it enough to have two superstars instead of three?

Memphis Grizzlies (+3000)

Strengths: They were the second-best team in the West last season, and they acquired the consummate glue guy in Marcus Smart.

Weaknesses: They can be very young and dumb from time to time, as we will be reminded during the first 25 games as Ja Morant sits out for posting weapons photos to Instagram.

Eastern Conference Contenders

Miami Heat (+2800)

Strengths: Playoff-tested and battle-hardened, their players are disciples of the Erik Spoelstra system, which has proven to work in the past.

Weaknesses: Lost free agent Gabe Vincent, and need to rely even more on unproven (long-term) young vets Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson.

Cleveland Cavaliers (+3000)

Strengths: Donovan Mitchell is the real deal, and there is no better defensive Eastern Conference front line than Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.

Weaknesses: They were outcoached and outworked in losing in the first round to a New York Knicks team that beat them in 5.

New York Knicks (+5000)

Strengths: Possibly the best-coached team in the East. They are loaded with extra first-round picks if a decent trade possibility arises.

Weaknesses: Mitchell Robinson is not a championship-caliber center, R.J. Barrett is overrated and Julius Randle may have passed his peak.

NBA Finals Preseason Longshots

We are not going to sit here and tell you that any team from the East is worthy of a finals wager. That is how loaded the West is. With that being said, the unexpected sometimes happens. Just ask any Nuggets fan who had been waiting since the dawn of time for that elusive first title.

Western Conference Longshots

Sacramento Kings (+5500)

Strengths: When you lead the NBA in scoring as they did, you are doing something right. De'Aaron Fox is the best point guard in California, it says here. Domantas Sabonis is a nightly triple-double threat who is an MVP sleeper.

Weaknesses: Their next playoff series win will be their first since 2004. There is a culture of losing that is difficult to overcome.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+7000)

Strengths: Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert did not have a chance (because of injuries) to play as a "Twin Towers" lineup. Nobody else in the NBA has that defensive weaponry alongside a superstar (Anthony Edwards).

Weaknesses: They are a pretty good team in an extremely tough conference. They went 42-40 last season and only got the No. 8 seed.

Oklahoma City Thunder (+8000)

Strengths: Josh Giddey is a nightly triple-double threat and Shai-Gilgeous Alexander is coming off a First Team All-NBA season and could be wager-worthy at +1800 for NBA MVP odds.

Weaknesses: Winning in the postseason takes time. They are super-loaded with young talent, not with experience.

Eastern Conference Longshots

Brooklyn Nets (+13000)

Strengths: Mikal Bridges was a great get from the Kevin Durant trade. Jury still out on Cam Johnson.

Weaknesses: Not so long ago, they believed it was a good idea to trade for Ben Simmons.

Toronto Raptors (+15000)

Strengths: Dennis Schroeder, fresh off leading Germany to the FIBA World Cup title, can duplicate what Fred Van Vleet gave them. O.G. Anunuby, a specialist in steals, is a Defensive Player of the Year sleeper at +4000.

Weaknesses: They are in a rebuild and are overpaying Gary Trent Jr. ($18.56 million). He is a cap clogger.

NBA Finals Bets

Look, we are going to be straight up with you: The Denver Nuggets are the team to beat. Period. If you did not appreciate what they did last June, go back and watch the games again. They were dominant. But with that being said, the Nuggets are playing in a super-loaded conference in which all of their competitors had major injury issues last season. There are value bets available if the Nuggets somehow stumble.

NBA Finals Futures

If you shop around at online sportsbooks, you will find preseason lines on "Exact NBA Finals Outcome" that are value-priced. For instance, if you believe all the hype and think there will be a Nuggets-Celtics matchup, you can get that at +900 at BetMGM.

Locking in on one team from each conference without having to bet who will win is categorized under "super-enticing." And if you believe in worthy outliers overperforming, there are flyer odds worth pondering. One example would be the Dallas Mavericks playing the Milwaukee Bucks for the title. That one is +4000. Suns vs. Bucks is +1400. Lakers vs. Heat is +4000.

NBA Finals Odds History

If we learned anything last year, it was how meaningless the regular season can be -- especially in the East. The Heat made it to the finals despite having to win a play-in game, which is a testament to their chemistry. We strongly advise you to consider the "Exact NBA Finals Matchup" NBA playoff odds listed above. That can be yacht money if your crystal ball is clear.

How have odds for previous NBA Finals winners matched up with their performance?

Every year is different when it comes to how championship teams performed vs. the odds, and there is no discernable pattern. It is highly uncommon for an outlier to make the finals, but Miami was one of those teams last season when they were a play-in team. On the night the play-in began, the Heat were +16000 to win the championship. (The Nuggets were +950).

What is the Biggest Upset in NBA Finals History?

That is a matter of opinion, but the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors went 73-9 for the best record in NBA history and had a 3-1 lead in the finals, but lost the final three games to the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Which team had the longest odds to win the NBA Finals?

The data on this only goes back to the mid-1980s, but the 2014-15 Golden State Warriors were +2800 to win the championship. The 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks won after being +2000.

Stick with us for the Latest NBA Finals Odds Updates

We will keep you updated on newsworthy odds movement, so bookmark this page and check back regularly throughout the season.

Author

Chris Sheridan

@sheridanhoops

Chris Sheridan is a veteran NBA writer who has been covering the league since 1992, with a specialty in international basketball after being credentialed for every Olympics since 1996 in Atlanta. He has been covering sports gambling since 2018.